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From 7 August 2025, the United States will apply a 39% customs duty on Swiss imports. Washington justifies this decision on the grounds of a bilateral trade imbalance, estimated at $38.5 billion in 2024. While export sectors such as watchmaking, machinery and chocolate will be directly impacted, this measure could also indirectly affect the Swiss real estate market.


Loss of purchasing power: a brake on demand for real estate

Swiss sectors directly affected by the US tax could see their products become less competitive on the US market, leading to a decline in turnover. To compensate for these losses, some companies may be forced to reduce their workforce, freeze investments, or even consider relocating or adjusting their prices.

This slowdown in activity could lead to a decline in Swiss GDP of up to 0.6% by 2025. As a result, households' investment capacity will decline, pushing demand towards more affordable real estate, particularly in the suburbs. However, overall residential demand is expected to remain stable.


Climate of uncertainty: what does the future hold for real estate investment?

Despite the SNB keeping its key interest rate at 0%, the climate of economic uncertainty is holding back investment decisions. Between rising construction costs, weakening purchasing power and macroeconomic volatility, the real estate sector could face the risk of prolonged wait-and-see behaviour.
On the other hand, Switzerland's economic and political stability continues to attract investors. The residential market remains largely unaffected by trade tensions and continues to generate stable rental income. Furthermore, with the key interest rate at 0%, government bonds are becoming less attractive, prompting investors to turn to real estate, which offers more stable income than equities. As a result, demand for Swiss real estate could even increase, pushing up prices.


Monetary and inflationary challenges for Swiss real estate

The rise in customs duties increases the risk of global inflation and destabilises monetary balances. Although the appreciation of the Swiss franc is curbing inflation in Switzerland by making imports (energy, materials, consumer goods) cheaper, it is also weighing on the export industry and reducing the attractiveness of Swiss real estate for foreign investors. Inflation and inflation expectations directly influence the real estate market: they impact interest rates, index-linked rents and construction costs, making this a key factor for all players in the sector.

The Swiss franc reinforces the image of stability in the Swiss real estate market, which could partially offset the decline in demand. As long as inflation remains low, the SNB is likely to keep its key interest rate at 0%, which continues to favour investment in real estate.


Rising construction costs: a brake on real estate projects

Higher customs duties are making imported materials such as steel and aluminium, which are essential for construction, more expensive. As a result, the costs of new construction and renovation are rising, reducing the profitability of real estate projects. In this context, some developments may be postponed or revalued.


Conclusion

US tariffs are weakening Swiss exports and could ultimately slow economic growth and put pressure on demand for real estate. Despite this, Swiss real estate remains attractive thanks to low interest rates and its status as a safe haven, provided that costs and the effects of the strong franc are carefully managed.


Sources
erimas.ch - Article
allnews.ch - Article
cvci.ch - Article
haufe.de - Article
propertyowner.ch - Article
wuestpartner.com - Article